The Des Moines Register came out with its latest, and last, numbers before the Iowa Caucus on Thursday, the 3rd. And for McCain supporters, there is some good news. Note to those who don't know; McCain is not a big ethanol from corn supporter (though as one in the oil & gas business, I think it's great!), yet Iowans seem poised to give him a good 3rd place finish on Thursday.
As many of the pundits and other talking heads have said, McCain coming in 3rd in the Iowa caucus would gain momentum, or the Big Mo as George Bush Sr. called it, that could help him best Romney in the New Hampshire vote on the 7th. As of the time of the Register's polling, Huckabee still had a solid lead over Romney at 32% to 26%. But the big news in the Register's latest poll is that McCain is Numero 3 at 13%. Fred Thompson, who many thought would be the No. 3 guy, is down in Ron Paul territory of 9% while Giuliani is polling only at 5%...ouch!
The latest Rasmussen poll had Huckabee and Romney tied, giving most in Romney's camp hope that the negative ads he ran against Huckabee had some downward pull on Huck's numbers. But a lot of pundits have said that, while Rasmussen is good, The Des Moines Register's polling, when it comes to Iowa, rules.
If you are Romney supporter, or more critically a Romney financial backer, The Register's polling numbers can only be termed really ominous. Definitely not the way Romney wanted to ring in the New Year. Romney's strategy of buying the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries really does seem to be falling apart. The negative ads have not stuck leaving Romney few options to exercise in the next two days.
That Romney's negative, and according to most news sources, dishonest ads against Huckabee do not seem to be working in Iowa begs the question of whether these same crap-o-la ads against McCain will fall flat in New Hampshire? The worstcase scenario for Romney is that voters have decided that Romney will simply say and do anything to reach the office. It's one thing to be ambitious but quite another to be craven.
The Des Moines Register's latest polls are also bad, really bad, news for Thompson, who frankly does not look like he is built for campaigning. If he looses to McCain in Iowa, doesn't do 3rd in New Hampshire, and does not get at least a strong 3rd in South Carolina, Thompson is done and the only thing to wait for is the exit speech, which should come right after South Carolina. Thompson's campaign has been an absolute disaster. While he has stuck to message, it's clear he doesn't have the presidency burning in his belly.
So, for Air McCain's perspective, the latest Des Moines Register polling data is really good news. I'm sure on the 7th that there will be much more to come.
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